Another reason could be that due to their small size, their vaccination status is not controlled and, therefore, vaccination is less worthwhile from the farmersвЂ™ perspective. According to Delabouglise, one reason that millions of small-scale poultry farmers may not be vaccinating their birds could be their desire to avoid transaction costs associated with declaring flocks to governmental veterinary services before vaccination. The probability of vaccination was almost zero for flocks of 16 birds or fewer and nearly 100% for flocks of more than 200 birds. Interestingly, the team found that the probability of disinfection was not affected by the occurrence of outbreaks.ДЇinally, the team found that the likelihood of vaccination against avian influenza strongly increased with flock size.

The team noted that sudden deaths - the deaths of chickens less than one day after the onset of clinical symptoms - are considered to be indicative of HPAI infection. This has the potential to exacerbate the outbreak and spread the virus even further.вЂќ вЂњSpecifically, small-scale farmers increased their harvest of broiler chickens by 56% during outbreaks with no sudden deaths and by 214% during outbreaks with sudden deaths. вЂњWe found that farmers did send their chickens to market early when there were outbreaks occurring on their farms,вЂќ said Delabouglise. вЂњWorking with partners in endemic countries day-in and day-out on study details and public health priorities is key to establishing collaborations that allow these long-term follow-up studies to succeed,вЂќ said Boni, who led a research group at OUCRU for eight years.Дelabouglise, the statistical lead on the research, used mixed-effects general additive models to investigate farmersвЂ™ probabilities of harvesting - either selling or slaughtering - flocks, of performing avian influenza vaccination on flocks that were not previously vaccinated and of disinfecting farm facilities when faced with an outbreak. The team followed 53 farmers and their management of more than 1,000 poultry flocks for a period of two years - from 2015 to 2017. вЂњIf there is an outbreak on a neighboring farm, they might choose to sell their poultry early to avoid their own birds from being infected and to avoid lower prices.В And if there is an outbreak on their own farm, the evidence in our study shows that they would be likely to sell their birds early to avoid both monetary loss and epidemiological risk.вЂќД«oni and colleagues, including researchers at the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit (OUCRU) in Ho Chi Minh City, conducted a longitudinal study of small-scale poultry farms in the Mekong river delta region of southern Vietnam with a goal of characterizing the effects of disease outbreaks on poultry harvest rates, as well as on two prevention practices - vaccination and farm disinfection. вЂњIf the price of poultry goes up, farmers might expand their farming activities, which could create more outbreak risk,вЂќ said Delabouglise. And their decisions can influence disease spread. These farmers make decisions on a daily basis - often in response to economic incentives - about when and where to sell their flocks. Lead author Alexis Delabouglise, an animal health economist at CIRAD-Agricultural Research for Development in France who was a postdoctoral scholar at Penn State when the research was performed, explained that small-scale poultry farming is practiced by millions of Vietnamese households and by millions more throughout southeast Asia, mostly on a scale of fewer than 100 birds per farm. If we ignore the active role that poultry farmers play in the control and dissemination of avian influenza, we may miss another opportunity to curtail an emerging disease outbreak at a stage when it is still controllable.вЂќ COVID-19 took us by surprise, but with HPAI, we have a known threat with the potential to become pandemic. Fortunately, reports of human-to-human transmission over the past 15 years have been either absent or anecdotal.

вЂњAvian influenza is deadly to humans, with a case fatality rate between 25% and 50%,вЂќ said Maciej Boni, associate professor of biology, Penn State. The findings could have implications for government policymaking in the many regions of the world where small-scale poultry farming and avian influenza risk co-occur. As these birds are commingled with other birds in markets and trading networks, this practice may increase the likelihood of widespread disease transmission. Small-scale poultry farmers in Vietnam tend to respond to viral outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) by rapidly selling their birds as a way to avoid financial loss, according to a new study by an international team of researchers.

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